All posts by BarbT

Still Sore From 2016, Democrats Ignoring Constitution To Pursue National Popular Vote

Kyle Sammin, March 7, 2019 – is a lawyer and writer from Pennsylvania, and the co-host of the Conservative Minds podcast. Read some of his other writing at his website, or follow him on Twitter at @KyleSammin.

link to article here

Last month, Colorado’s legislature became the twelfth to pass the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC,) an agreement among the states to circumvent the constitutional method of electing the president in favor of a national popular vote. Each state that signs the agreement would require its presidential electors to obey the results of the national popular vote, not the results in their own state. It would come into effect when states representing a majority of electoral votes have signed on to the idea. Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, a Democrat, has pledged to sign the bill.

The idea has been capturing the attention of frustrated Democrats since law professor Robert W. Bennett dreamed it up after the 2000 election. It gained even more popularity on the left in 2016, following the election of Donald Trump despite Hillary Clinton’s popular vote plurality.

As an antidote to the Democratic Party’s current difficulties in winning votes outside of their coastal base, the compact is bound to appeal to fed-up partisans. But as a legal matter, it is flawed and almost certainly unconstitutional.

The Constitution Can Be Changed Only by Amendment

The way we change constitutional requirements like the Electoral College is detailed in Article V of the U.S. Constitution. The amendment process described there gives several ways to change the Constitution, and may be used to bring about nearly any alteration the people desire. It was, in fact, used to alter the Electoral College process three times before.

The first, in the Twelfth Amendment, approved in 1804, mandated that electors vote separately for president and vice president (before then, the vice president was the runner-up in the presidential election, a system that quickly became untenable). The Fourteenth Amendment, added in 1868, barred unpardoned rebels from becoming electors and requiring that states allow all of their male citizens over 21 years old to vote for electors (with a minor few exceptions). The Twenty-Third Amendment expanded the Electoral College to give the District of Columbia three electors in 1961. In addition, the Fifteenth, Nineteenth, Twenty-Fourth, and Twenty-Sixth Amendments expanded the right to vote generally, including in presidential elections.

As all this makes clear, we are perfectly capable of altering the method of presidential election through the amendment process, and have done so often in our history. Why, then, would the advocates of a national popular vote not use that tried-and-true method of altering our political structures legitimately? The reason is simple: they have tried it before and failed. Instead of trying to build popular support, popular vote advocates are now trying to get around the law through this legislative sleight of hand.

It takes more to amend the Constitution than it does to pass a simple statute, and purposely so. The Constitution is supreme over all other laws and state constitutions. As such, changes to it ought to be something that more than a bare majority desires. Laws come and go, but a Constitution is meant to have staying power and not be idly altered.

The popular vote campaign does not have that widespread support. Time and again, amendments proposed in Congress to accomplish their desired result have failed. A quick look at the states that have joined this legally dubious effort shows that the effort is entirely one-sided—the compact has been made law in Maryland, New Jersey, Illinois, Hawaii, Washington, Massachusetts, Vermont, California, Rhode Island, New York, and Connecticut, as well as the District of Columbia.

None of these states have voted Republican in a presidential election since at least 1988. In fact, D.C. has never voted Republican, and Hawaii has done so only twice. The addition of Colorado will mark the first time that anything close to a swing state has joined the compact—Colorado voted Republican in 2004, and favored Hillary Clinton by less than 5 percent in 2016.

A narrowly partisan change to the Constitution is not likely to pass, nor should it. The changes to the Electoral College made in the 1804 and 1961 amendments had widespread support around the country, and corrected problems that nearly everyone agreed were problems. The NPVIC does not seek to remedy such an ill; it seeks victory for one side through changes in the law.

This Interstate Compact Violates the Constitution

It is a bad idea, but does that mean it is unconstitutional? Not on those grounds alone, but the compact clearly violates the plain language of several sections of the Constitution. The first clue is in its title. Any interstate compact must raise the issue of the Compact Clause in Article I of the Constitution, which holds in relevant part that “No State shall, without the Consent of Congress … enter into any Agreement or Compact with another State.”

That’s a pretty strong statement. No penumbras and emanations here, only the unequivocal language of the Constitution that says any compact among the states must be approved by Congress. Even in those analyses of the NPVIC that support its constitutionality, authors admit that “read literally, this provision would require all agreements between states to be approved by both houses of Congress and to be signed by the President before coming into effect.”

“Read literally.” What other way should a law be read? Do the NPVIC’s advocates think the language is metaphorical? Do they suppose the Constitution’s authors were being whimsical when they wrote this phrase? Even originalists can admit that some passages in the Constitution are vague, but to read the words any way other than literally invites us to have no standard at all.

Non-literalists point to historical examples of agreements between states that never received congressional approval, yet have never been invalidated. Most of these involved border adjustments between two states, a necessity in the days of imprecise measurements. Drawing on an 1893 Supreme Court ruling in Virginia v. Tennessee, they maintain that Congress does not need to approve all compacts, only those involving “the formation of any combination tending to the increase of political power in the States, which may encroach upon or interfere with the just supremacy of the United States.”

This is taken as evidence in the NPVIC’s favor, but it is more naturally read the other way. Even if the carve-out invented in Virginia v. Tennessee remains good law, it suggests only that minor agreements with no effect on the union as a whole should be exempt from congressional approval.

The exact contours of the Virginia-Tennessee border (the subject of that case) do not change the balance of power between the states and the federal government. While important to people living along that state line, it has no federal implications and is hardly even a compact; it is merely the clarification of an earlier (in this case, colonial) agreement on a physical boundary.

Compare that to the NPVIC, which effectively rewrites an entire section of the Constitution. The compromises struck at Philadelphia in 1787 were not made lightly. Decisions on how the president would be elected and how many votes each state would get are the product of lengthy negotiations and trade-offs. To overturn those arrangements based on the alliance of a few states—likely not even a majority of them—turns that finely balanced design on its head.

A compact among these states that will determine the election of the president is the farthest thing from the minute adjustments to a colonial-era state border. The Constitution provides one method of electing a president, while the NPVIC substitutes another. Nothing could be more of an encroachment upon “the just supremacy of the United States.”

Disenfranchising Their Own Citizens

Other constitutional objections could also hinder the NPVIC. One of the biggest issues is that, while claiming to value all Americans’ right to vote for president, the compact has the effect of disenfranchising each state’s citizens.

Imagine a scenario like the 2004 election, where Republican George W. Bush won a majority of the popular vote, but did not win any of the current NPVIC member states (Colorado will be the exception to this rule when it joins the compact). The result would have been that John Kerry’s ten best states all cast their votes for his Republican opponent. Does that make any sense? Is that the will of the voters in those states?

The concern is more than moral. The Fourteenth Amendment, as noted earlier, made a change to the Electoral College meant to address the former Confederate states’ efforts to disenfranchise their newly freed black citizens. Section 2 of that amendment holds that:

Representatives shall be apportioned among the several States according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each State, excluding Indians not taxed. But when the right to vote at any election for the choice of electors for President and Vice President of the United States, Representatives in Congress, the Executive and Judicial officers of a State, or the members of the Legislature thereof, is denied to any of the male inhabitants of such State, being twenty-one years of age, and citizens of the United States, or in any way abridged, except for participation in rebellion, or other crime, the basis of representation therein shall be reduced in the proportion which the number of such male citizens shall bear to the whole number of male citizens twenty-one years of age in such State.

In layman’s terms: if any state denies the right of adult male citizens to vote, that state’s representation in the House of Representatives will be reduced in proportion to the percentage of such men who were disenfranchised. That is, if the state of Louisiana—which was 50.1 percent black in 1870—had refused to allow its black citizens to vote, the number of representatives Louisiana could send to Congress would be reduced by 50.1 percent.

Despite widespread black disenfranchisement in the South following the end of Reconstruction, this provision was never enforced. It nevertheless remains valid law, and the read together with the Nineteenth and Twenty-Sixth Amendments, it would likely prevent the disenfranchisement of any citizen aged 18 or older. The Congress that passed this amendment sought to protect the former slaves from being deprived of the right to vote; they never imagined that a state would someday attempt to disenfranchise all of its citizens.

Yet that is clearly what the NPVIC threatens to do in removing the right to vote for electors for president. If the nationwide vote is won by a candidate other than the one who won in that state, the state’s electors would nevertheless vote for that candidate. This would sever the connection between the voters and the electors, disenfranchising the people and jeopardizing the state’s representation in the House.

Fantasy Elections

Even if the NPVIC were constitutional, and even if enough states joined it to bring it into effect, there is no guarantee that the result would suit Democrats any better than the current system. We don’t know who would have won a national popular vote contest in 2016 because no one, at present, has ever tried to win one.

Any campaign worth its salt tries to win the actual election, not the fantasy election we call the popular vote. Republicans do not campaign in California, even though citizens of that state cast 4,483,810 votes for Trump in 2016, more than any state except Florida and Texas. Likewise, Democrats do not waste much time or money in Texas in presidential elections, even though Clinton got more votes out of the Lone Star State than any state but three. (Clinton also did not expend much effort in much closer states like Wisconsin and Michigan.)

Could Trump have gotten more votes out of California if his campaign had spent time and resources there to get out the vote? Of course he could, but it would not have been enough to overcome Clinton’s massive advantage there, so they did not bother. At the same time, many conservative Californians likely sat home, knowing their votes would not tip the state to Trump. This is the heart of the NPVIC advocates’ case for a popular vote, yet they fail to see how it cuts against them just as much. We don’t know who would win a national popular vote, because we’ve never really had one.

Losing two elections in the Electoral College despite popular vote pluralities is bound to frustrate partisans on the left, and it has seemingly driven some of them to embrace radical, nonsensical solutions. Emotions run high in electoral politics, but they cannot overcome the truth of what the Constitution does and does not allow. Proponents of a popular vote are free to amend the Constitution if they can but until they do so, they must respect the rule of law and accept the results of elections.

Wages Keep Climbing, And Unemployment Keeps Falling

– March 8, 2019

Amid Climbing Wages And Historically Low Unemployment, More Americans Are Getting Off The Sidelines And Reaping The Benefits Of The Trump Economy

_______________­­______________­__

TOP TAKEAWAYS

  • February marked the 7th straight month of 3% or better wage growth as gains reached 3.4%, the best in a decade.
    • This was “hugely positive,” and “easily the best of the economic recovery that began nearly 10 years ago,” beating economists’ predictions of 3.2 percent wage growth.
    • New York Times economic reporter Ben Casselman left no room for any Democrat doubters saying, “wage growth is very clearly accelerating.”
  • The national unemployment rate remained at or below 4% for the 12 th straight month in February, and groups who have historically suffered from high employment like non-high school grads and Hispanic-Americans saw record low unemployment rates.
    • The unemployment rate for Hispanic-American reached a new record low.
  • The labor force participation rate remained at a 5 year high as Americans left behind by President Obama are flooding back into the labor market thanks to President Trump’s pro-worker policies.
    • President Trump’s booming economy has brought a “sizable” number of Americans, particularly women, back into the labor market, reversing the “alarming” exodus of workers that occurred under President Obama.

___________________________

WAGES CLIMBED 3.4% IN FEBRUARY, THE SEVENTH STRAIGHT MONTH OF WAGE GAINS 3% OR HIGHER, AND THE BEST SHOWING IN A DECADE

Wage Growth Hit (Another) 10-Year High In February, Particularly For Those Who Need It Most

 

Read the complete article here

Democrats Turned Colorado Into A Solid Blue State

Colorado has long been considered a swing state, but it’s really been leaning solidly blue for some time now.

November 7, 2018 By Helen Raleigh
The Federalist

Democrats solidified Colorado as a blue state Tuesday, with big wins in the state legislature and the gubernatorial race.

Democrat Jared Polis, who has served in the House since 2009, will become the next governor of Colorado. He defeated Republican candidate Walker Stapleton, former Colorado state Treasurer, with 51 percent of the vote to Stapleton’s 45 percent. Polis will replace Democrat John Hickenlooper, who was term-limited. The last time Colorado had a Republican in the governor’s mansion was more than a decade ago with Republican Bill Owens.

Colorado has long been considered a swing state, but it’s really been leaning solidly blue for some time now. It was one of the first to legalize marijuana, and Hillary Clinton defeated President Trump there in the 2016 election. Tuesday’s gains for Democrats punctuate the shift left. The party now controls the state legislature, in addition to the governor’s mansion.

Compared to his two Democrat governor predecessors, Polis represents the far left wing of the Democratic party. He not only supports traditional Democrat issues such as raising the minimum wage and gun control, but also advocates for single-payer health care, an all-renewable electric grid and state-funded full-day preschool.

Especially on health care, Polis, who regards healthcare as a human right, is determined to bring universal healthcare to Colorado regardless of the cost to tax payers. In the past, Coloradans defeated a ballot measure attempting to bring single payer healthcare to Colorado due to the estimated astronomic cost. However, as Colorado becomes more blue, a University of Colorado public opinion survey this year shows at least 50 percent of Colorado voters support a “single-payer” healthcare system “in which all Americans would get their health insurance from one government plan that is financed by taxes.”

So Polis’s extreme position on healthcare may have actually contributed to his win. Several conservatives I spoke to prior to the election told me that they would move to another state if Polis won, out of concern for the upcoming tax burden to fund his liberal agenda. Polis will also make the history for being the first openly gay governor in the U.S.

Another significant loss for Republicans is in Democrat Jason Crow unseating Republican Rep. Mike Coffman in Colorado’s 6th Congressional District, a suburb close to Denver. A 2010 redistricting turned a solid conservative district into a battleground. Coffman had managed to keep his seat five times, even though both President Obama and Democrat presidential candidate Hillary Clinton easily won this district. As this suburban district becomes more diverse, Coffman has made a great deal of effort to successfully build relationships with minority constituents in the district. He even learned to speak Spanish fluently.

But Coffman’s seat looked increasingly vulnerable this year as Democrats recruited Jason Crow, a military veteran, to challenge Coffman and turned this race into one of the most expensive in the country. Crow made this race all about Trump and tried to tie Coffman to the President. Given President Trump’s unpopularity in suburban areas, Crow’s campaign strategy paid off.

There are some silver lining for conservative Colorado voters. Several ballot initiatives that would raise taxes, including Prop 73 (increasing taxes to pay for education) and Prop 110 (raising sales taxes to pay for transportation) were defeated. The job killing Prop 112, which seeks to increase setbacks for new oil and gas development in Colorado, has been defeated too.

But, while Coloradans continue to favor property rights and lower taxes, the trend is clear. Despite their vote on ballot initiatives, Coloradans should expect an onslaught of progressive legislation in the next two years. In Colorado, Democrats made the 2018 elections a referendum on Donald Trump. Their strategy paid off as the state firmly rejected the president.

Helen Raleigh is a senior contributor to The Federalist. An immigrant from China, she is the owner of Red Meadow Advisors, LLC, and an immigration policy fellow at the Centennial Institute in Colorado. She is the author of several books, including “Confucius Never Said” and “The Broken Welcome Mat.” Follow Helen on Twitter @HRaleighspeaks, or check out her website: helenraleighspeaks.com.

Voting Insights by Summit County Republican Women on State of CO and Summit County 2018 Ballot Amendments and Propositions

Summit County Republican Women

Positions on  Amendments & Propositions for 2018 State of Colorado Ballot & Summit County

These are amended notes from a discussion that we had at our October SCRW meeting.  We encourage our members and friends to continue to research and ask questions before casting your  vote on Tuesday, November 6, 2018.  We’ve also included the recommendations from the Centennial Institute 2018 Voter Guide.

Here is a summary from the members present who provided their opinions.

Proposition 109 Authorizes transportation bonds WITHOUT tax increase

  • Total repayment including P&I to $5.2 billion over 20 years
  • Transparency and accountability as each project is specified
  • Vote YES
  • CI says YES

Proposition 110 Authorizes transportation bonds WITH tax increase

  • Increases sales tax
  • Borrow up to $6 billion for transportation projects with repayment to $9.4 billion over 20 years
  • Vote NO
  • CI says NO

Proposition 111 amending the Colorado statutes thorough review by Charlotte Jacobsen

  • Reduce the total cost for a payday loan to a 36 percent annual percentage and
  • Expand what constitutes unfair deceptive trade practices
  • Unnecessary because state legislature passed reforms in 2010 that already lead to fewer defaults and reduced loan costs
  • Vote NO
  • CI is neutral on this one.

Proposition 112 pros & cons thorough review presented by Debra Irvine.

  • Statutory ballot measure that if passed, will establish a 2,500 foot setback between oil and natural gas development & occupied structures or other vulnerable areas
  • Would kill up to 147,00 good-paying jobs in CO by 2030 with up to 43,000 jobs being lost in the first year alone
  • Vote NO
  • CI says NO

Amendments:

A          Civil Rights & Constitutional Language

  • Removes language that currently allows slavery & involuntary servitude
  • Against states it’s redundant so may have minimal impact
  • Vote YES
  • CI says YES

V          Legislator minimum age from 25 to 21

  • Current age strikes an appropriate balance between youth and experience
  • Vote NO
  • No input from CI

Y and Z   Y is Congressional redistricting and Z is legislative redistricting & the ones our group did not agree on.

  • Pertains to gerrymandering that may stack the deck to one political party over another
  • A nonpartisan staff will be selected to include 4 Democrats, 4 Republicans & 4 Unaffiliated.
  • 8 of the 12 must approve the redistricting map.
  • Per Kim McGahey it depends on who is in power; if the Democrats like they are now, Vote YES (Kim) but if Republicans are in power, vote NO.
  • Per Debra Irvine, Vote NO. Not so cut and dry; need to do more of your own research!
  • CI says YES

73        Funding for Public Schools

  • Establishes tax brackets and raises taxes to fund education
  • Vote NO
  • CI says NO

74        Compensation for Reduction in Fair Market Value by Government Law or Regulation

  • Property taxes and fracking
  • This amendment is in response to Proposition 112 so it offsets; Vote NO on 112 and YES on this one just in case 112 does pass.
  • Property value will be harmed by government action.
  • Vote YES
  • CI says Vote YES

75        Campaign Contributions

  • Outside Democratic supporting groups spend more than the Republicans right now.
  • Vote NO says Kim.
  • CI says YES
  • Eric says YES

1A        Property tax increase of $15 Million + over five years

  • Funds four local initiatives: wildfire mitigation, mental health & suicide prevention, infrastructure repairs, early childhood education, recycling and waste diversion.
  • Though these are admirable causes, this is a big bill that the county commissioners are trying to push through. There have been many letters to the editor on this topic, urging a No vote to force the county to split these issues into separate bills and be more transparent about how the money would be spent.

Vote NO

Trump’s List: 289 accomplishments in just 20 months, ‘relentless’ promise-keeping

By Paul Bedard, October 12, 2018, Washington Examiner

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/trumps-list-289-accomplishments-in-just-20-months-relentless-promise-keeping

The Trump administration’s often overlooked list of achievements has surpassed those of former President Ronald Reagan at this time and more than doubled since the last tally of accomplishments after his first year in office, giving President Trump a solid platform to run for re-election on.

As Trump nears the two-year mark of his historic election and conducts political rallies around the country, during which he talks up his wins in hopes it will energize Republican voters, the administration has counted up 289 accomplishments in 18 categories, capped by the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court.

They include 173 major wins, such as adding more than 4 million jobs, and another 116 smaller victories, some with outsize importance, such as the 83 percent one-year increase in arrests of MS-13 gang members.

“Trump’s successes in reducing the cost of taxes and regulations, rebuilding our military, avoiding wars of choice and changing the courts rival those of all previous Republican presidents,” said Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform.

“Trump has an advantage over Ronald Reagan: He has a Reagan Republican House and Senate while Reagan had a [Democratic Speaker] Tip O’Neill House and a pre-Reagan Republican Senate. Reagan and [former GOP Speaker] Newt Gingrich were the ice breakers that allowed Trump’s victories to grow in number and significance,” he added.

Unlike the Year One list which included many proposals and orders still to be acted on, the new collection includes dozens of actions already in place, signed legislation, and enforced executive orders.

Unemployment Rates for States under the Trump/Republican Administration

Unemployment Rates for States under the Trump/Republican Administration

From the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unemployment Rates for States, Seasonally Adjusted
State August 2018(p) Rank
rate
Hawaii 2.1 1
Iowa 2.5 2
North Dakota 2.6 3
New Hampshire 2.7 4
Idaho 2.8 5
Nebraska 2.8 5
Vermont 2.8 5
Colorado 2.9 8
Minnesota 2.9 8
South Dakota 3 10
Virginia 3 10
Wisconsin 3 10
Utah 3.1 13
Maine 3.2 14
Kansas 3.3 15
Missouri 3.3 15
South Carolina 3.4 17
Indiana 3.5 18
Arkansas 3.6 19
Massachusetts 3.6 19
Montana 3.6 19
Tennessee 3.6 19
Florida 3.7 23
Oklahoma 3.7 23
Georgia 3.8 25
Oregon 3.8 25
Delaware 3.9 27
North Carolina 3.9 27
Texas 3.9 27
Wyoming 3.9 27
Rhode Island 4 31
Alabama 4.1 32
Illinois 4.1 32
Michigan 4.1 32
Pennsylvania 4.1 32
California 4.2 36
Maryland 4.2 36
New Jersey 4.2 36
New York 4.2 36
Connecticut 4.3 40
Kentucky 4.4 41
Nevada 4.5 42
Washington 4.5 42
Arizona 4.6 44
New Mexico 4.6 44
Ohio 4.6 44
Mississippi 4.8 47
Louisiana 5 48
West Virginia 5.3 49
District of Columbia 5.6 50
Alaska 6.7 51

Hispanic/Latino Unemployment Rates – Lowest in History Under President Trump and Republicans

Graphs and Charts from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Data extracted on: October 4, 2018 (12:49:06 PM)

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Unemployment Rate – Hispanic or Latino
Labor force status:  Unemployment rate
Age:                 16 years and over
Ethnic origin:       Hispanic or Latino

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2008 6.3 6.2 6.9 7.1 6.9 7.6 7.5 8.0 8.0 8.8 8.7 9.4
2009 10.1 11.3 11.7 11.4 12.3 12.1 12.5 13.0 12.6 12.8 12.4 12.8
2010 12.9 12.7 12.9 12.5 12.0 12.3 12.2 12.0 12.3 12.3 12.9 12.9
2011 12.3 11.8 11.6 11.9 11.6 11.5 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.3 11.2 11.1
2012 10.7 10.9 10.6 10.3 10.9 10.9 10.2 10.1 9.7 10.0 9.9 9.6
2013 9.7 9.7 9.3 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.4 9.2 8.8 9.1 8.7 8.3
2014 8.3 8.2 7.9 7.3 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.4 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.4
2015 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.9 6.6 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.2
2016 5.9 5.4 5.6 6.2 5.6 5.9 5.4 5.6 6.4 5.7 5.7 5.9
2017 5.9 5.6 5.1 5.2 5.2 4.8 5.1 5.1 5.1 4.8 4.8 4.9
2018 5.0 4.9 5.1 4.8 4.9 4.6 4.5 4.7        

Fact Sheet – Booming Economy under President Trump!

Fact Sheet:

The Economy is booming under President Trump and the Republican Party, creating jobs, wage growth, and personal wealth.

  1. The unemployment rate was at 3.9 percent in August.
  2. The unemployment rates for Hispanics/Latinos, Blacks, and Asians are the lowest in history.
  3. Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.5 percent), adult women (3.6 percent), teenagers (12.8 percent), Whites (3.4 percent), Blacks (6.3 percent), Asians (3.0 percent) and Hispanics (4.7 percent).
  4. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit record highs more than 80 times under President Trump/Republicans, including closing higher than 26,000 points for the first time in history. This benefits most individual retirement plans, pension plans, and individual investors.
  5. Since President Trump’s election, more than $5 trillion in wealth has been created for the U.S. economy.
  1. President Trump signed an Executive Order that expanded apprenticeships, recognizing the need for more quality alternatives to four-year college degrees. The Executive Order set in motion a new process that makes it easier for businesses to create apprenticeship programs, providing many more Americans access to an affordable education that leads to a well-paying job.
  2. The Trump Administration prioritized the economic empowerment of women as a key element of its commitment to economic growth and gender equality. This year, the Small Business Administration loaned approximately $500 million more than last year in capital to women-owned businesses.
  3. President Trump has rolled back unnecessary job-killing regulations. In 2017, President Trump far exceeded his promise to eliminate regulations at a two-to-one ratio, issuing 22 deregulatory actions for every new regulatory action. This has led to business growth and jobs.
  4. Under President Trump’s leadership, Congress passed historic tax cuts and relief for hard-working Americans. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act:
  • Is the first major tax reform signed in 30 years.
  • Federal revenues are increasing as the economy grows. April 2018 had a record surplus of $214 billion.
  • Over 500 companies have announced bonuses, wage increases, and new investments.
  • Businesses have invested $482 billion in new, American projects and employees.
  • More than 4.8 million workers received increased wages or bonuses (3.7 percent of all private workers).
  • Provided $1.5 trillion in tax cuts to individuals.
  • American families received $3.2 trillion in gross tax cuts and saw the child tax credit double.
  • A family of four making $73,000 will get a cut of over $2,000-cutting their taxes in half.
  • Nearly doubled the standard deduction.
  • Repealed Obamacare’s burdensome individual mandate
  1. President Trump and the Republican Party are unleashing economic growth and jobs. During Trump’s first year, nearly 3 million new jobs were created since January 2017 and the unemployment rate fell to 3.8 percent, the first time below 4 percent in 18 years.
  • The manufacturing industry has created more than 300,000 jobs.
  • 337,000 construction jobs have been created since President Trump took office, and construction employment stands at its highest level since June 2008.
  • Fourteen states reached record low unemployment rates.
  • Job openings have reached 6.6 million, the highest level recorded. This competition should drive wage growth.
  • Jobless claims reached the lowest level in 45 years (1973).
  • The number of people dependent on food stamps has fallen by 2.6 million or 6.2 percent since January 2017.
  • The number of people receiving unemployment benefits is running at the lowest level in 45 years.
  • The U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has averaged 3 percent growth the last three quarters. At the end of July, it was 4.2 percent. Under President Obama, GDP averaged 1.9 percent.

Employment Data

From Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, August 2018

The unemployment rate remained at 3.9 percent in August.

  1. Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.5 percent), adult women (3.6 percent), teenagers (12.8 percent), Whites (3.4 percent), Blacks (6.3 percent), Asians (3.0 percent) and Hispanics (4.7 percent).
  2. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) is 1.3 million. Over the year, the number of long-term unemployed has declined by 403,000.
  3. Professional and business service added 519,000 jobs over the year.
  4. Health care has added 301,000 jobs over the year.
  5. Wholesale trade employment increase by 99,000 over the year.
  6. Employment in transportation and warehousing rose by 173,000 over the past 12 months.
  7. Mining employment has added 104,000 since October 2016, almost entirely in support activities for mining.
  8. Employment in construction has increased by 297,000 over the year.
  9. Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls has increased by 77 cents or 2.9 percent.

The Blue Bubble will Burst – Election forecaster, Dr. Gerard Lameiro

Source: https://greatnewsforamerica.com/blue-bubble/

Forget the Blue Wave, Will Even the Blue Bubble Burst in November?

As I have predicted many times before, there is not going to be a Blue Wave, a Blue Ripple or even a Blue Drip in November; but now, the Democratic Party might even see their Blue Bubble burst in key Congressional Districts (CDs) around the country. That’s right. Blue Bubbles now exist in some Blue Congressional Districts. These are CDs that the so-called Establishment experts think are likely to go Blue this November. The so-called experts have written off the chance of any Republican winning in these districts because they have been in Democratic hands for years, possibly decades.

Surprise!

The Blue Bubble will burst in a number of key Congressional Districts around the country. I’m going to name a few races worth watching closely. Republican candidates in these CDs might surprise the pundits and pull off victories.

California’s CD 16 – Elizabeth Heng

This Central Valley California Congressional District that includes Fresno is deemed to be solidly Democratic. The Democratic incumbent Jim Costa is thought by most experts to coast to an easy victory. But, America has moved into a new Conservative Era as described in my 2016 book Great News for America.

I predict Elizabeth Heng will pull off a surprise victory. Heng is an enthusiastic, conservative who supports President Trump and his policies such as immigration reform. She’s on the right side of national issues. Plus, she’s also on the right side of local issues – most notably, getting water to San Joaquin Valley farmers , something the Leftists in California don’t want to do despite farmers important and obvious need for water.

While her opponent has more funding than Heng, I think her funding will likely be adequate to win her race.

Count this as one more seat for the Republicans.

Colorado’s CD 2 – Peter Yu

Much like Elizabeth Heng in California, Peter Yu will shock the national experts when he takes this Colorado Congressional District away from the Democrats. This CD covers Larimer and Boulder counties in northern Colorado and the seat is currently held by Jared Polis, who is giving up the seat to run in the Colorado gubernatorial race against Walker Stapleton. Peter Yu is also an energetic and enthusiastic, rock solid conservative, who completely supports President Trump.  He has an infectious optimistic vision.

Despite the current fund-raising edge the Democrats have in this CD and despite the Democratic Party voting edge in this Congressional District, Peter Yu will show that money and voter registrations can not guarantee a House seat.

The Democratic candidate has received funding for his race from the unpopular Nancy Pelosi and Planned Parenthood. But, possibly, a bigger factor in this race is the #WalkAwayMovement and Democrats and Independents-Who-Usually-Vote-As-Democrats, who have swallowed the “red pill’ and are now supporting the successful pro-economic growth and pro-freedom agenda of President Trump.

It’s interesting that there is a libertarian flavor to the Left in many CDs – that is moving in Peter Yu’s direction as well.

Peter Yu is working hard to let voters in CD-2 know his pro-economic growth, pro-freedom, pro-Trump stands.

With more funding, count this has an upset victory and one more seat in the House for the Republican Party. A visit by President Trump will allow President Trump to count on another loyal supporter in Congress.

The Formula that Candidates are Using to Burst the Blue Bubble

There are several key factors that are coming together to burst the Blue Bubble in key Congressional Districts. They include:

  • Strong support for President Trump and his policy agenda
  • An optimistic vision for the CD and the nation
  • Emphasis on pro-growth economic policies and current President Trump successes
  • Emphasis on pro-freedom agenda
  • Contrasting the positive conservative agenda and Trump track record versus the dismal agenda of the Leftists and socialists –
    • Eliminate ICE – complete open borders to allow in drugs and gangs and some criminals
    • Medicare-For-All – at a cost in excess of $35 Trillion
    • High-High Taxes and Burdensome Regulations
    • Impeach an Effective and Popular President

There is no Blue Wave, no Blue Ripple, and no Blue Drip coming this year. Now, even some of the isolated Blue Bubbles are bursting too.

The Conservative Era continues to grow!